Analysis of world markets

OECD. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development has informed on increase of expenses for a labour in 30 economic member countries systems organisation, on 0.5 % a year in the first quarter of this year, after growth on 0.1 % in the fourth quarter 2007. Wages increase in current conditions especially excites boards of the central banks of all world as an inflationary spiral risks have increased. In industrial sector the wage level in the first quarter in the USA has grown on 0.3 %, in the Eurozone countries on 0.2 %, and in Japan on 0.6 %.

USD. Growth in the commodity markets has slightly weakened dollar on Monday. The US dollar has receded from a seven-mouth maximum in relation to yen and from a 11-day maximum against a basket of currencies as investors used a rise in prices in the commodity markets for profit fixing on dollar. The USA stabler growth, recoil of the prices for oil from the maximum values and the USA worsening conditions out have strengthened dollar for the last some weeks. «The dollar is in a consolidation phase, and the prices in the commodity markets grow, investors use it as the pretext for dollar sale» - was declared by Vin Fin, the senior currency strategist of company Brown Brothers Harriman. «Investors are convinced that fundamental factors in Europe worsen quickly. And though in the USA there is the same, the reciprocal policy of the USA looks more effective.» - Vin Fin speaks. The president of Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank, Dennis Lokhart has declared that the American economic growth in the remained half of year can be "rather weak" that in what that to a measure will help to bridle inflation. Recent indicators of inflation have flied up to a 17-year-old maximum, but, according to Lokharta, in the following some months are expected fall of the commodity prices, in a consequence of decrease in business activity. Complexities in economy will be tightened till 2009, but the interest rate can remain for this period without change. However we believe that jumping nevertheless will be notable enough. The index of the USA builders confidence, published yesterday, remained at record-breaking low level the second month successively in August, even in spite of the fact that builders continue to hope for returning of buyers to the real estate market in connection with the low prices and the new federal program of the help habitation bying. And the price of actions Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac has fallen (to 11 %) to a minimum almost for 18 years on fears that the government of the USA will be compelled to go for rescue of the hypothecary companies, neglecting interests of ordinary actions owners. Their actions have failed after the statement of weekly newspaper Barron's that official representatives of the government expect inability Fannie and Freddie to involve volume of the capital necessary for them. Solving for correction become Tuesday statistical datas.

CAD. Foreign investors have got in June the Canadian securities for the sum of 7.25 billion Canadian dollars, thus despite decrease in volumes, from the last month, the volume of long-term acquisitions state bonds has changed slightly. In the second quarter of securities acquisition foreign investors have reached the second record maximum of 27.6 billion dollars while Canadians reduced the shares on foreign markets, and especially American.

JPY. According to the governmental data, the index of advancing indicators has slightly grown in July to level 91.3 points from a mark 91.2 points, registered in last month. Thus sales in the Japanese department stores decrease the fifth month successively, against fears of decrease consumers in rates of the country economic development. Full retails of department stores taking into account seasonal correction, have fallen to 2.5 % in July to volume of 706.2 billion yens, in comparison with last year, after decrease on 7.6 % last month. So prompt falling is a confident harbinger of recession in 3rd quarter. Considering practically a total absence of maneuver at Bank of Japan a yen current rate can keep only a negative on other currencies. 

EUR. In June in an eurozone deficiency of the foreign trade balance has been fixed. In the market the positive balance of foreign trade was expected, but import growth has exceeded export growth. Deficiency of 15 countries foreign trade an eurozone in June has made 0,1 billion euro against positive balance 7,5 billion euro in June, 2007. The data published on Monday which have appeared worse forecasts, say that strengthening of euro and easing of world demand harms to exporters of an eurozone as does production of more expensive an eurozone. According to forecasts of German DIW «after fixing of negative value of economic growth in the second quarter, in our opinion, only the sector of services will rescue economy from the negative reading of a gross national product second successively quarterly gain». This data should give special attention the next months. It is remarkable that according to the Prime minister of France Fillon the present euro current rate still does not reflect an economic reality of the Eurozone. It has expressed hope that ECB will support process of decrease in an euro current rate observed now to dollar. However the basic warp of a course in its opinion is observed with the Chinese yuan. 

GBP. After publications of the data about the next falling the prices for habitation in Great Britain on-2.3 %, thus that the previous falling made-1.8 % traders have received the next signal to pound sale. The prices for houses in Great Britain have fallen in August to the greatest value since 2002. Falling of the prices for habitation can strengthen decrease in rates of economic growth against possible recession and growth of unemployed number on the maximum value for 16 years. To an exit of the data on Tuesday we expect continuation of this movement. Considering confident falling last week to all currencies by a weekend it is expected decrease continuation. 

AUD. The Australian dollar was close to the maximum one-day growth for last three weeks. The reserve Bank of Australia will publish on Tuesday reports of the session from August, 5th. It will be key news across Australia this week. But investors expect unexpectedness from this publication as last statements of Reserve Bank officials leave ever less doubts in decrease in the key interest rate at following session on September, 2nd ever less. The assistant to Managing director Rik Battelino has declared recently that the rate can be lowered for the first time for seven years from level of 7.25 % on a quarter of percentage point. 

CHF. Growth of retails in Switzerland in June was slowed down, but remained at high level - on 0.7 % a year, after growth on 3.2 % in May, and on 7.4 % in April. Expenses of households grow in Switzerland well enough thanks to growth of the had income and the low rate of unemployment making hardly more 2 %. Nevertheless, expected reduction in demand from the countries of an eurozone which are the largest market for Switzerland, and also inflation growth have led to deterioration of consumers recently moods. Many economists expect that deterioration of economic conditions will make negative impact on expenses of the Swiss consumers the next months. It is expected that the Swiss national bank will leave without changes the key interest rate, at least, before following session in the middle of September. Now the key interest rate of the Swiss national bank makes 2,75 %. Considering problems on other currencies there are considerable chances for the further strengthening of franc not only in relation to euro but also dynamics turn on steam with dollar. About formation of descending movement while early to speak, however continuation of a negative from states can generate such trend.