Analysis of world markets

 Oil is almost unique moving impulse of the currency market now!

 USD. The US dollar has grown on Wednesday, leaving the two-day falling, supported by assumptions that slow economic growth will cause a wave of decrease in interest rates out of the USA. The American currency also gets support from outside of the prices falling for the oil, connected with increase in oil stocks in the USA on 9.4 million, at the forecast of growth analysts for 0.7 million barrels. Analysts consider that fears which have again appeared earlier on these weeks concerning state of the USA economy in long-term prospect basically have ceased. The dollar remains in a long-term ascending trend against other basic currencies. Falling remain limited and should be considered as possibility for dollar bying. We urgently recommend to watch closely participants of the market the weekly data on oil stocks in the USA.

 CAD. Key support to the Canadian currency is rendered by the growing commodities. Therefore on their quotations at work with this currency it is necessary to pay paramount attention. As a whole, besides thanks to the high prices in the commodities state of the economy of Canada the normal. The compound advancing indicator of Canadian economy activity has not changed in July concerning the last month. The index which was equal 100 in 1992, in July has made 228,3 as well as in June. The market waited for growth on 0,1 %. Two of 10 components have decreased, 7 have shown small growth. The price index has sharply fallen, having lost 2,9 % - the maximum decrease since 2002, basically because of the beginning building reduction. Consumer expenses on the goods of long using have continued to grow, though the prices for gasoline have slowed down growth of cars bying. Manufacturing industry indicators were again mixed. New orders have grown on 1,3 % after falling last month, basically because of orders in the aerocomic industry.

 JPY. The index of business activity in industrial sector in Japan in July has decreased on 0.9 % at the falling forecast in 0.8 %. The bank of Japan has lowered an estimation of export growth, consumer expenses and industrial growth, at yesterday's monthly meeting after the general forecast of economy growth has been lowered.“ Growth of export volumes will considerably be slowed down against decrease in global demand ”, - has informed today Bank of Japan. The day before the Central Bank in 21 consecutive times has left the rate at former level of 0.5 %. In the detailed analysis of economic parametres, the Central Bank management has informed on sharp decrease in an impulse of gross growth national product, and decrease in rates export increase, these indicators, however, remain in the raising tendency. Consumption level decrease is caused by a rise in prices for mineral oil, fuel and I peep that has caused reduction of the population real income. It tells all about that yen positions in relation to other currencies will remain weak and hints on strengthening in the nearest some weeks are not expected. The probability of a lateral trend in steams with pound and euro is highest, as these currencies now also look weak.

 EUR. The president of Federal reserve bank in Dallas Richard Fisher on Tuesday has declared that «recent falling of the prices for the commoditive goods should not be considered as panacea from inflation». It is equally fair as for the USA, and EU. And for last it is more important, as ECB takes of more passive position in the market, than FRS. Slackness ECB has led to trust loss to euro and the beginning of global correction. Even state datasThursday will not change a global trend. Though the risk of local strengthenings to remain over the weekend.

 GBP. Expectations of industrial growth production have fallen to the lowest levels since December, 2001, continuing a descending trend from the beginning of 2007. Industrial production of Great Britain in August has decreased more considerably, than it was expected. The industrial production index in August has fallen to-13 against-8 in July and the forecast-11. Yesterday it became known that for rate preservation has voted 7 of 9 members of Monetary Committee of England Bank. The England Bank was divided in sights at the further monetary policy. Was has expressed three various opinions, and the similar alignment of forces remains the second month successively." The majority of Monetary Committee members have considered that the current credit policy as a whole corresponds to situation requirements, - is told in the session report. - economic prospects growth activity have continued to worsen, however some increase in not used capacities, most likely, it was necessary to provide inflation returning to a target mark ". The bank of England has allocated that there are" essential risks for inflation prospects ". This message became the next portion of a negative on England. economy. Expectations of pound growth are minimum and most likely will be connected with news from other countries.

 AUD. The Australian dollar can be overcome this afternoon if bad industrial indicators of Europe weaken euro. Yesterday it has become stronger against US dollar at the today's auctions after decrease to 7-month's minima. Rise in prices for gold, oil and metals has supported the Australian currency, besides the message of the Chinese government on stimulation plans of internal demand also has given to hope to the Australian investors. At last session of the commission on the Australia Reserve Bank currency policy it was informed on possible fall of the rate on 25 basic points, thus the market expects decrease in the rate with the big share of probability at session on September, 2nd. It is promoted by signals about economy delay. So the index of private institute published on Wednesday, says that the economy of Australia is on a threshold quickly economic growth delays during the period from 3 till 9 next months that is connected with easing of financial sector and deterioration of private sector conditions. Annual rates of increase of the economic advancing indicator activity of Melbourn Institute Westpac Institutional Bank were slowed down to 2 % in June from 2.4 % in May and 4 % in the beginning of current year. Main Bill Evans saves institute Westpac's, has told that delay is caused basically by strong falling of the local share market, worsening conditions of financial sector and the market of the real estate and the weak data on industrial production of the USA. The economist also considers that the economy needs stronger decrease on 50 points, rather than decrease on 25 points which the market now expects. Within last seven years the board of bank did not reduce the rate. However in our opinion it is improbable, that as the index of advancing indicators published on Wednesday in Australia in June has made 0.1 %. In the previous period value of an indicator made 0.0 %. Growth of inflationary expectations the budget about 2 % of gross national product will disturb more Bank of Australia than economy delay.