Analysis of world markets

USD. The US dollar current rate in relation to euro has returned on former levels on Monday in New York after the publication of the data on the USA secondary habitation market which have appeared better expectations and could compensate negative moods in the market, appeared because of falling in the stock markets of the country which still bargain with fall. Falling has been caused by fears of investors in connection with a situation in financial sector of the USA and falling in the stock markets. Especially after Friday Warren Baffett has declared that banks Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have settled possibilities of the federal government to support them as bank elasticity liquidity system from additional injections of financial assets has considerably decreased. One only Ben Bernanke, according to the well-known investor, cannot rescue the American economy. Current conditions in stock market Baffet has characterised as rather attractive to purchases, in comparison with the similar period of last year. Dollar strengthening can stop, if the USA government does not address to payments balance problem. On Tuesday comments of FRS head can render to dollar support. Ben Bernanke has declared on Monday that it does not consider possibility of interest rates increase, despite inflation "jump". Also he has told that expects easing of inflationary pressure. In its opinion, the power "are still focused" on risks for economy and the financial markets that has forced them to keep the interest rate at "rather low level". As a result traders mood with the big share of probability will be aimed at dollar strengthening. From the economic data which publication is expected this week in the USA, the greatest attention will be involved with the consumer sector data. Indexes of trust the consumers given under personal incomes and expenses will give the information on the important sector of house economy on which share it is necessary about 70 % of the USA economy. Also this week the data under personal incomes and expenses will be published. Under forecasts of economists, incomes in July have fallen to 0,4 % after growth in May and June thanks to return of taxes. Expenses, predictably, have grown on 0,2 % that it is possible to consider as the moderate beginning of expenses trend in III quarter.

CAD. The government of Canada has lowered the economic forecast growth in 2008, but has confirmed small proficiency of the budget on the year end. Minister of Finance Jim Flaherty has told that real gross national product will grow, probably, only on 1,1 % instead  1,7 % predicted in the budget of 2008. It hardly above the new forecast of Canada Bank at level of 1 % which has been lowered from 1,4 %. Against falling of the prices for oil it became a serious negative for Canadian currency quotations. 

JPY. The chairman of Japan Bank Shirakava has declared today that economic growth will continue to slow down rates of development in the near future.“ At the moment in economy of Japan there is no surplus in capital investments, employment and a public debt, therefore growth delay will be moderated. But economy - as a live being, therefore we intend to watch closely its condition, and to take adequate measures ”, - has informed Shirakava. Earlier, last week when the Bank of Japan has left the rate at former level, representatives MPC declared decrease in rates of economic growth, and finishing increase a cycle of the development which has begun in 2002. Members МРС expected that the economy of Japan will head recession among the Asian countries owing to outflow capitals, however at present risks of sharp recession have decreased, and languid decrease is expected. Reports of Japan Bank session have shown on July, 14-15th that some members of its board are seriously disturbed by influence of economic delay on Japanese national export prospects. However Tokyo still considers scales of measures on stimulation of a national economy and release bonds possibility for their financing. The Japan Economic Minister has declared it on Monday Kaoru Yosano. Its statement allows to assume that correcting Liberally-democratic party and the cabinet cannot reach the consent concerning a package of economic measures which the Japan  government aspires to accept by the end of this week. 

EUR. The euro current rate to dollar decreases on Tuesday the third trading session successively in expectation of the businessmen index trust publication to Germany economy which, predictably, could decrease to a minimum level for three years. The uniform European currency also is under pressure to a kind of fears that the possible increase in write-offs in the credit market and reduction of the countries export an eurozone will not ECB allow to go on repeated increase of the base interest rate this year. The euro have every chance to fall even more low. Players refuse to put for euro as chances of ECB rate increase thaw in the face of. The member of ECB Libsher on Monday has noticed that «the main thing now - inflationary expectations». Inflation of consumer prices in an eurozone in August, possibly, has decreased from July peak." Falling of the prices for crude oil in comparison with the last month, possibly, was one of the main decrease reasons in the general rate of inflation, - economists Citigroup in a note for investors mark. - Besides, the prices for a foodstuff, possibly, have decreased in comparison with the last month that has brought the contribution to decrease in an annual rate of inflation ". According to the forecast of economists, the economic trust in an eurozone in August, possibly, has decreased, but is less considerable, than in July. It is expected that the detailed data under gross national product of Germany for II quarter will testify to weak internal demand and high pure export. 

GBP. The American dollar has raised to a two-year maximum against the British pound, after an exit of the data last week, about delay of economy and rates prospects absence increase. The British gross national product in the second quarter has been reconsidered towards fall, to level of 0.0 %, against an initial estimation of 0.2 % that is the weakest growth from the second quarter 1992. Delay in Great Britain calls into question growth of the Eurozone economy, and raises probability of interest rates fall next months. The vice-president of England National Bank, Charles Bin, has warned on Monday that the current tendency of economic growth decrease in rates will last a much bigger time interval, than it was expected earlier. Crisis in the credit market put the market of the real estate and industrial branches in deep recession while the high prices for oil and a foodstuff have lifted inflation to record maxima therefore the Central Bank has got into difficulties owing to small possibilities of currency policy regulation. “Crisis has begun one year ago, and we expected that it will come to the end to Christmas, however it has proceeded within the next 12 months, and long time” will possibly proceed still, - Bin has informed. 

AUD. According to an estimation of the Melbourn Institute of Economy the Australian economic growth will be slowed down in the fourth quarter of this year, but as a whole the economy hardly will roll down in recession. Growth delay will be expressed in decrease in rates from 3.0 % in June, 2008 to 2.2 % in March, 2009. Less all the negative phenomena will mention such branches of economy as a mining industry, building sector and service sphere. As, according to experts of the Melbourn Institute, the global economy not soon will start to be restored from the crisis phenomena. The basic drivers of the international economy - India and China only start to enter into a strip of economic ailments. However, the commoditive binding plays at present against the Australian currency.