Analysis of world markets

USD. In competition on activity an unequivocal victory over ECB has gained FRS. Ben Bernanke's statements on Monday that it does not consider possibility of increase interest rates, despite inflation "jump" have strengthened dollar. As the aspiration to earn on strengthening of dollar against falling actions has been supported earlier FRS given out 75 billion long cheap credits in dollars. Desire coincidence to earn with possibilities have provoked time tolerance to negative state data from the USA. Heterogeneity of movement on oil speaks about high probability of arrangement on a rise restriction in prices on oil. So there is only a currency market. The descending corridor is generated. It is necessary to predict only, what levels are the movement purpose - 1.43 to euro or more low. Absence of correctional movements for last weeks "has seriously overheated" the market. Possibly, the rest of week will pass in a lateral trend with vollatility in 100 - 150 points that undoubtedly only will add forces to the subsequent movement. All the same the statistics from states multiplied by falling of the stock market will not allow and to move a dollar current rate sharply further. From the publication of session reports FOMC it became known that the majority of committee-men consider that economic activity in the USA "most likely, remains weak within several quarters". And inflationary risks continue to cause "considerable" anxiety.  

CAD. Economic delay became a primary factor of prices reduction on commoditive materials, and it, in turn, was the considerable factor in easing of Canadian dollar against US dollar, - the representative of Canada bank Longvort has told. He also has told that last data confirms that growth of Canada gross national product has appeared slightly more poorly, than it was expected. «The bank of Canada continues to consider that inflation will reach level of 2 % in 2009, second half», - he has told.   

EUR. Considering a growing disbalance of trading balance in the Eurozone "passivity" ECB can be thought over tactics for euro current rate decrease, so also growth of goods from EU appeal. The weak economic data in an eurozone has put pressure upon euro and has led to growth of dollar against the basic currencies on Thursday. Given IFO Germany for August have disappointed, the index has decreased to 94,8 against 97,5 in July, and gross national product reduction in the second quarter on 0.5 % became the first decrease for last 4 years. Contrary to the data across Germany the American releases though also ambiguous, have reflected the latent signs of improvement. Euro falling was promoted by statements of the trustee of ECB Shtarka for display secondary signs inflation effects in the Eurozone. Concerning recession possibility in an eurozone, Shtark has told that «' awful ' scenarios are inappropriate"." The most probable scenario is the period of weakness and gradual economy growth », - Shtark has told. However it is enough far prospect for now the euro weakens and would eat not weakness of dollar euro reduction in price would proceed. We expect high volatility with sharp changes. To watch corporate reports, especially financial sector.   

GBP. The negative on pound proceeds also dynamics on forex will not change till the end of August. Among other, in the British press the problem of decrease in business optimism because for commoditive materials rise in prices, and delay of economic growth is widely discussed. Increase of a price level by the companies, at the moment, is at the bottom of similar rise in prices for roar manufacture factors and decrease in a level of demand on their production ”, - the England Bank representative has informed today. The rate of inflation this year can reach a point of 5.0 % as average cost of power resources is still high. Though from the economic point of view decrease in a pound course. It just urged to compensate this negative, especially at export operations. The bank of England will undertake hardly attempts to strengthen English currency in the world. The pound on former is the supernumerary in the forex market.   

AUD. The Australian dollar has jumped aside from 11-month's minima against the American dollar on the Wednesday, supported is momentary the growing prices in the commodity markets and a pause of the American dollar growth against euro. The data left has shown today that expenses on building have strongly fallen in the last quarter that has returned fears on a supply economy weakness. However this news has not strongly affected the market. The Australian bonds were in a condition of the weak growth, supported by expectations that the bad economic data and and uncertainty of financial country sectory will accelerate decrease in interest rates. Being under negative influence of prices falling in the commoditive markets and growing inflationary expectations levels on the Australian currency before rate revision in Australia less leave from lateral flet.   

CHF. The Swiss National Bank expects that inflation will decrease from present 15 summer maxima, - has told the chairman of bank Jean-Pierre Rot. «The society, seemingly, expects inflation growth. We expect that the situation will be quieter», - he has told.