Analysis of world markets

The IMF lowers the forecast of economic growth on 2008 and 2009. In 2008 of IMF growth at level 3,9 % against 4,1 % predicted earlier expects. For 2009 the forecast is lowered to 3,7 % from 3,9 %. For the USA forecast on 2008 remained former - 1,3 %, to 2009 is reduced from 0,8 % to 0,7 %. In the Eurozone in 2008 the economy will grow on 1,4 % (fall from 1,7 %), in 2009 on 0,9 % (fall from 1,2 %). It is one more argument in favour of the further strengthening of dollar

USD. The market has felt confidence of dollar after  unexpectedly good statistics publication on economy of the USA. The quantity of orders for the long using goods has unexpectedly grown in July on 0.7 %, at expectations of analysts decrease on 0.5 %. In June indicator growth has made 2.4 %. Rod orders for the goods of long using have grown on 1.3 %, after growth on 1.3 % in June. Economists expected growth only on 0.1 %. Growth of the given indicator as a rule gives considerable support to national currency as it is the indirect indicator of a consumption level. Besides business activity in industrial sphere of the Midwest the USA in July has grown the second month successively that was promoted by manufacture increase in mashine building industry and in sector of cars and the equipment. The federal reserve bank in Chicago has declared on Wednesday that its industrial index for the Midwest in July has grown on 0,4 % to 106,3 taking into account correction on seasonal fluctuations against 105,9 in June. The June indicator has been reconsidered with 106,0. Index growth in June has made 1,2 %. This region into which enter Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin, Indiana and Iowa, has shown the same result, as a national index of FRS industrial production which in July also has grown on 0,4 % in comparison with the last month. At the auctions on Wednesday the US dollar bargained with decrease against the basic currencies that strong support from outside state datas can testify to the period of profit fixing and forthcoming correction next week However so can stimulate the further strengthening of dollar without waiting the next week as we assumed earlier. 

JPY. A member of Japan Bank Miako Suda has informed that the central bank will not weaken the protection against inflationary risks, even despite decrease in the world prices for commoditive materials. Suda has noticed that though growth of the Japanese economy weakens, she does not wait sharply for economy delay, as in 1998 or 2001. So significant comments against other positive news will possibly develop dynamics on yen towards strengthening. So, yesterday it became known that 4th on size cars building  company in Japan, Mazda Motor Corp. Declared increase of output volumes in July on 25.5 %, (in absolute value on 126 025 cars), in comparison with last year. Thus, in July the eleventh successively monthly increase of manufacture as the company has let out a successful number models which are in demand worldwide is registered. In June manufacture has grown on 11.3 %. 

EUR. The euro has quickly grown against dollar at yesterday's Asian session on closings of short positions after falling to a six-monthly minimum in a previous day. According to traders, growth of currency which has fallen earlier after the disappointing data on moods of business, is caused by active euro break from outside operating funds and involvement break orderv stop.
Data across Germany was last strong sign that delay of the USA economy was transferred and on other countries. They have strengthened market expectations that ECB will lower the interest rate. However on Wednesday the Operating participant of European Central Bank Council Alex Veber has declared that level of current ECB interest rate of 4.25 % «still benefits, instead of is simply neutral». The European Central Bank last time raised the rate at session on July, 3rd on 25 basic points for reflexion of rise in prices a spiral  and wages. Now the currency policy is adequate to a current situation and discussion of decrease in rates prematurely. ECB aspires to keep norm of annual inflation not above 2 %, but since September, 2007 to reach this indicator it was not possible yet. 

CHF. The Swiss National Bank will support all actions of the Swiss bank regulator in realisation of measures which I will help bank system  to have crisis times. It was declared on Wednesday by the vice-president of the Swiss National Bank Phillip Hildebrand. Now at least one of two largest country private banks is touched by the international crisis of the financial market. In the country there is sharp debate about the size of capital reserves for big banks. The high norm of reservation urged to lower risks for all bank system as a whole, but cannot help to rescue separate bank. Under the threat there is bank group JUBS while during last crisis moments Kredit Svis bank group suffered. However absence of a hysterics in discussion and Central Bank comments multiplied by good macrostatistics gives signals to strengthening of the Swiss franc quotations in forex.