Analysis of world markets

Strangely enough it sounds, but movement of the markets on Friday will depend on weather forecast in the Mexican gulf.

USD. The dollar was restored from a minimum level of this week against euro on the report which has shown that the USA economy has grown in the second quarter faster, than it was estimated earlier. Profits of the American companies in II quarter have increased by 1,0 % to 1,361 billion dollars after falling on 7,7 % last quarter. Gross national product of the USA from April till June has grown on 3.3 % in annual calculation that is considerable above the previous estimation at level of 1.9 %. We will remind that the economy grew in the first quarter with speed of 0.9 %.« The market so is assured of the USA economy that with revival perceives any good data », Alan Kabbani, the senior currency trader in Wachovia Corp makes comments. Export growth helps to provide" soft landing "for economy of the USA. At the same time, delay of the USA economic growth outside, and also US dollar current rate stabilisation is raised by risks for economy of the USA while it faces weak internal demand for the goods and services. Considering it, and also, what to begin« rally on top »on Friday« it will be inconvenient »activity on dollar minimum a little. And against the growing prices for oil it even will slightly fall in price on Friday. Dynamics of course USD can influence a number of the important economic news across the USA leaving on the next week:

- An index of business activity in industrial sector

- New quantity workplaces out of agriculture

- A rate of unemployment.

CAD. The data published today on balance of payments has appeared worse expectations, but nevertheless it is better than the previous data. The balance of the balance of payments in July has made 6.8 billion Canadian dollars, at the analysts forecast growth to 8.0 billion dollars. The prices for oil and gas which have grown on 25 % and 33 %, and also grown more than twice level of coal export have helped. Thus not as analysts, in the third quarter mark decrease in balance owing to reduction of prices on the commoditive goods, observed in the last, most likely, will be noted some weeks. The conclusion arises only one. With danger leaving on hurricane Gustav the Canadian currency after oil will fall.

JPY. The data which has been let out on Friday across Japan has confirmed increase in risks of the second-large economy delay the world as because inflation growing and slowed down economic growth in other countries position in sectors of corporations and Japan households worsens. Last economic indicators also specify that proceeding recession in Japan will be faster soft, than considerable, thereby allowing Bank of Japan to hold current interest rates level. The Ministry of Internal Affairs has declared today that the rod consumer price index which excludes final prices of a foodstuff and power costs, has grown last month on 2.4 % in comparison with a month before that is the fastest growth of this indicator since October 1997. Growing inflation is a consequence of growing uncertainty concerning employment guarantees while corporations of Japan combat profit falling. All it creates risk of decrease in volumes private consumption which makes about 55 % from a national economy. The representative of the commission on a monetary and credit policy of Japan Bank, Miyako Suda, has declared that the Bank of Japan is ready to lift interest rates in the event that steady economic growth will be restored any minute. At present the economy shows the languid development weakened by reduction in demand for production of the Japanese companies and a rise in prices in commoditive markets. At the moment, it agree to the data of research Credit Suisse, the probability of rate increase on 25 basic points makes 16 %. As well as on other currencies oil quotations will define dynamics of the yen auctions on Friday and most likely to strengthening. However it is dynamics rather short-term. 

EUR. The data about inflation bears a positive, however economic growth in EU under the big question. A positive from inflation and a rise in prices for oil will strengthen euro, however it will be within the descending channel. Lower, than it was expected inflation in Germany, Spain and Belgium give the grounds to predict inflation decrease in the Eurozone in August. The data on inflation in the Eurozone leaves on Friday, and it is possible hopes that it will decrease to 3,6 %. The prices for oil fall from the middle of July. Last week economists considered that inflation will decrease to 3,9 % in August from 4,0 % in July. Many have lowered the forecast after on Thursday the data on inflation of Spain and Belgium has been published.« Data of Thursday obviously shows inflation decrease in August, that is the peak has been passed in July, - tells Stefan Deo, the economist from UBS. - Also there are all bases to wait for continuation of decrease in inflation in October - November ». Economists ING Bank wait that inflation in August will appear 3,8 %, but it can be and below 3,6 %. However on Thursday it became known that economic growth in 15 countries of an eurozone in August was slowed down. The data of the researches economic policy Center testifies to it/CEPR/. In the centre have informed that indicator EuroCOIN in August has fallen to 0,17 % from 0,34 % in July. It signals about that that" the tendency growth in an eurozone loses force ". This lowest an indicator value from the middle of 2003. The total internal product of an eurozone was reduced to 0,2 % in II quarter - for the first time from the beginning of 1995 when the indicator has started to pay off it. Index EuroCOIN says that recession in economy proceeds and in III quarter. Its value will be co-ordinated with other indicators of activity and the data on consumer trust and trust in business circles. But the European central bank has let know that this year the key interest rate will not decrease, considering concern of bank the inflationary pressure caused by a rise in prices observed earlier for oil and a foodstuff. 

GBP. The England Bank representative, David Blenchflauer, has once again called the commission on the currency Bank policy to lower interest rates, against sharp economy growth delay. The quantity of the unemployed, as he said can increase to 2 million persons. The break-even sales level decreases with the maximum rates for last 25 years as the consumption level has considerably fallen. The prices for houses have fallen to 10.5 % in August in annual calculation to minima of 1990. The habitation market was the first sector of economy which has started to decrease after credit crisis. The balance of industrial orders of Great Britain has fallen to level-46, from a mark-36 points in July. The index of retail sellers expectations for September has fallen to level-42 points. Heads of the retail companies plan to continue increase in the prices in the third quarter. All it only confirms continuation of pound course falling to other currencies. 

CHF. The Swiss franc moved today in a lateral trend against the majority of currencies at the New York session, having rolled away from considerable maxima against pound and US dollar. Falling has been caused by the governmental report in which it is specified that unemployment in Switzerland has grown in the second quarter more considerably, than it was expected earlier. Unemployment has grown on 2.4 % in comparison with a year before. Economists predicted this indicator at level of 2.1 %.