Analysis of world markets

USD. The US dollar on Tuesday has flied up to a 7-month's maximum against euro and almost to the highest level for two and a half year against the British pound after the prices for oil have fallen against certificates of that hurricane Gustav has appeared not so pernicious for an oil infrastructure as hurricane Katrina there is. The given USA have a little saddened a dollar picture, having shown that business activity in August still in industrial sector in negative territory. Manufacturers reduce volumes of investments and output against falling of habitation cost and a rise in prices for the gasoline, making negative impact on a consumer demand. However in the markets as a whole continue to put on dollar growth as its strengthening remains in force. As export supports the industry in a stable condition, even despite delay of economic growth rates in the country.

CAD. The Canadian dollar has fallen on Tuesday to the lowest value for last year. As the reason sharp falling of the prices for oil after messages on the threat termination from outside tropical hurricane Gustav has served. Considering that the season of hurricanes for the USA yet has not ended, and the macrostatistics leaves inconsistent, with confidence it is possible to speak only about volatility growth.

JPY. The head of Japan Bank Shirakava: «Japan Economy, predictably, remains slowed down during some time», reflecting problems in the financial markets, delay of global economy and worsening trade conditions ». 

EUR. The ECB Vice-president Lukas Papademos has declared that consequences of the market subprime crisis can have long negative effect for the markets and in a consequence to lead blow on financial stability in the Eurozone. Besides the price index of manufacturers in the Eurozone in July has grown the maximum rates since January, 1990 - on 9,0 % for a year after growth on 8,0 % in June. The rise in prices is provoked by a rise in price of fuel which has grown in July on 24,5 % y/y. Economists wait for rise in prices decrease in August as falling of the prices for commoditive materials is marked. For a month the index has grown in July on 1,1 %, after growth on 1,0 % in June. Economists considered that the prices will grow on 1,3%m/m and on 9,1% y/y Without the prices in building sector and energy carriers of the manufacturers price have grown in July on 0,5 % m/m and on 4,3 % y/y. In June this indicator has grown on 0,4 % and 4 % accordingly. However the Prime minister of Luxembourg the Cadet has declared that does not see risk of recession in Europe after the data for the second quarter. Thus he has noticed that the US dollar has possibilities for the further strengthening. According to the governmental forecasts, the economy of Germany will continue to develop hardly the slowed down rates, however its condition is far from a recession condition. “Economy growth on 1.7 % is modest enough, in comparison with growth in 2006 and 2007, however progressive development of economy in current conditions speaks about its stability and force». Despite assurances of leading economists of EU a situation strained enough and the potential for euro falling still is.

GBP. In the report published today the Organization of economic development and cooperation (ОEDC) has informed that Great Britain - unique, from the countries of the Big seven for which ОEDC predicts quarter falling of gross national product in 3 and 4 quarters in comparison with the same period of previous year. Falling of the prices for habitation has lowered incomes of house economy and possibility to take credits to Great Britain consumers." There is an impression that before us the economy enduring fast enough recession. As a result, we expect that this recession will constrain inflation therefore the interest rate can be lowered ", - the group economist of OEDC Elmeskov has told. The Prime minister of Great Britain Gordon Brown has informed on Tuesday on decrease in the unpopular rate tax to bying houses within the limits of a measures directed package on rendering assistance to the habitation market. Recession in the market of the inhabited the country real estate is the worst at least for last 18 years. The Ministry of Finance declared that since September, 3rd the real estate in cost less than 175 thousand pounds sterling will be released from the stamp duty for one year while now the limit is established at level of 125 thousand pounds. Threshold change will cost to the budget of 600 million pounds, and now, according to the Finance Ministry, from the tax will be released about half of transactions with houses. Besides, it is planned to spend 1 billion pounds for support of those who buys for the first time the house, and people who cannot cope with hypothecary payments. However experts express doubt that taken measures will make essential impact on a problem, and declare that for its decision more serious steps be required. In the Ministry of Finance the further actions for situation stabilisation for which solid investments, however, are necessary still discussed. 

AUD. The approved demands for building in July again have decreased - on-2.3 %, previous value-0.7 %, the forecast of 0.3 %. The Prime minister of Australia Kevin Rudd, has declared that decrease in interest rates first of all will support to the real estate market, however risks of economic recession are still great. Yesterday the Reserve Bank of Australia has lowered the rate on 25 basic points to level of 7 % that there was the first a fall since December, 2001. 

CHF. In Switzerland slow restoration of economic growth rates is observed. Despite essential recession in industrial sector increase of consumer expenses and restoration export volumes has given a cumulative gain of gross national product on 0.4 % quarterly, and 2.3 % annually. The rate of inflation has decreased from a 15-flight maximum. Retail prices in August have fallen to 0.3 % and the annual indicator has decreased from 3.1 % to 2.9 %. Economists expected delay of rates increase to 0.2 % in comparison with the first quarter. The trustee of the Swiss National Bank Thomas Jordan has declared that the Swiss economy next year can be slowed down, but inflation easy that will allow the Central Bank to keep interest rates on a low level. Completely effects on decrease in inflation to the set level in 2 % can affect only to spring of the next year. Following session under the interest rate will take place on September, 18th and in the market there are no doubts that it remains without change.