Analysis of world markets

USD. Dollar has grown to maximum almost for a year of level against euro as the prices for crude oil have fallen, supporting prospects for economic growth of the world's largest fuel consumer. As a whole, motive forces Forex promote growth of the American dollar. Definitely, the prices for the commoditive goods are a part of dollar strengthening, and considering the further reduction of prices on oil probability that the dollar will grow to $1.3830 for euro next weeks remains to the highest. FRS forecasts can definitively decide dollar destiny by the year end. Even in spite of the fact that consumer expenses threaten to lead economy of the USA big recession to second year half. In financial sector enormous destructions which lead to repayments of the enterprises the state are observed, therefore traders see a few high FRS probability returning to tactics of decrease in interest rates. Yesterday dollar ease against a basket of the basic currencies after the message on preliminary loss 5.92 dollars on stock company Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. The exit of the given message was noted by demand increase from outside investors on papers with the fixed income, and sales of financial sector actions. The US dollar has got under pressure of the message on the USA bank sector losses. The market expected large quantity positive or the neutral data from financial sector of the USA. Last days the dollar bargains in extremely mixed tone against volatility sessions. Unfortunately till the end of this week this tendency remain

JPY. On Wednesday dofferent dirrect statistics and an obvious negative from States have helped will become stronger to Yen. So the index of conterminous indicators in July has grown to level 103.3 points, at predicted value 102.5 points, value in June 101.6 point. The given indicator includes a set of such indicators which characterise state of the economy at the moment. Accordingly indicator growth gives support to national currency. However we are confident that at a current deal this temporary phenomenon caused in more measure gamble with yen use as cheap resource. Industrial indicators continue to signal about falling. The basic orders in mechanical engineering of Japan will continue to decrease, as analysts inform, thus the volume of capital investments in July under forecasts has decreased on 4.3 % in monthly calculation.   

EUR. The probability of a turn towards euro rise in price forces ECB leaders to force a hysteria in comments on Eurozone economy. Thus ECB wishes to manage "with small losses" - not to reduce the rate for struggle against inflation and to support export reducing a course. The Prime minister of Luxembourg Jean-Claude Junker having informed on presence recession risk in 15 euro zone countries. Delay of economic growth will proceed during longer period, than it was expected earlier, thus inflationary risks still remain high. The labour market is at present in a good condition that supports economy a little. Also the Cadet has noticed that recent decrease in bying power of euro is positively reflected in economy, owing to increase of the European competitiveness manufacturers. ECB president Jean-Claude Trishe ascertained that insufficient liquidity in the markets has led to recession in many branches of economy where urgent authorities intervention is required and has called for ECB powers expansion. The positive across Germany has been compensated by a negative from France and Italy. However rupture in time of these news, and news on Lehman Brothers have led considerable market volatility. Aksel Weber has declared that there is a risk of that world financial crisis can extend on other segments of the market. Nevertheless, vulnerability of Germany in this crisis face is not too high. In 2007 the general attention has been involved in two Deutsche Banks which have met difficulties in the conditions of crisis. Nevertheless, according to Weber, the Germany losses connected with crisis, "are not especially great"." Intermediate term prospects of the credit industry of Germany this year have a little worsened, however I believe that they remain quite good ", - Weber has told. As he said, intermediate term economic prospects of Germany remain favorable. He has noticed that in Germany there are no signs" a soap bubble "in the habitation market. Besides, in Germany, unlike other regions of an eurozone, crediting growth is not slowed down. In France on the contrary the situation continues to worsen. The Eurocommission has raised the growth inflation forecast in France this year to level of 3.5 % from 3.0 %. Economic growth in Italy this year can be slowed down to increase at 0.1 % that is absolutely minimum value in the Eurozone this year. 

GBP. By England Bank estimations on the real estate market restoration some years can leave and without the active help of local authorities not to manage. In many cases local authorities could become guarantors under hypothecary mortgages for the citizens living in their territory. Last week the government has accepted a package of measures on real estate market support, including the help to local authorities on houses bying of not paid off borrowers. We regard it as de-facto recognition of the state inability to cope with the given crisis in current conditions. Yesterday it became known that gross national product gain (from NIESR) for July-September has made-0,2 %, the previous value of 0,1 %. Thus the balance of trading balance without trade with the EU countries in July has made-4.7 billion pounds, at the analysts forecast are-4.5 billion pounds, and the previous value are-4.8 billion pounds. For pound it means only one it will fall much more willingly than to grow. As a whole our forecast about a complete dependence of quotations from other currencies proves to be true. 

AUD. The rate of unemployment in Australia has fallen to the minimum value for five months as the number of new workplaces, despite economy cooling, has appeared above expectations of analysts, having allowed an additional occasion to be cautious with interest rate fall. On Thursday the Ministry of Labour has shown that employers have employed in August on 14 600 persons more than in July. Economists predicted growth on modest 5000. But that became even more surprising, the rate of unemployment has decreased on 0,2 % to 4,1 % while growth to 4,4 % was expected. The data shows that the situation with unemployment, is still enough rigid. It is an additional occasion to Australia Bank to be cautious at key interest rate change. Last week the Reserve bank of Australia has lowered the rate on 25 basic points to 7,0 % - the first decrease for seven years, saying that economy delay will automatically constrain inflation. Besides, the Central Bank noticed that delay of employment growth, and increase in a rate of unemployment will be the deterrent for salaries and inflation. The market considers that in October of the rate will be lowered again, and this forecast is based on worsening economic indicators. But employment will not decrease in the near future. And the Bank of Australia should consider once again the plan of action ». Futures under interest rates still specify on 80% probability of decrease in the rate to 6,75 % in October though after a report exit on employment their number has decreased from 93 %. After last reductions of the budget, Bureaus Australia statistics have lowered volume of the statistical data on 24 %, having made a definitive indicator less exact and more volatility. Advancing indicators of a labour market, such as employment announcements, specify in delay sector next months. 

CHF. Unlike the markets of the USA and Great Britain, the Switzerland real estate market does not test deficiency of credits offer, and there is only small risk of that credit conditions will become tougher. It was declared on Wednesday by the trustee of the Swiss national bank Thomas Jordan. As he said, in the real estate market of Switzerland there is no "soap bubble", and risks for the Swiss banks are minimum. As he said, there are no signs of that prospects of economic growth of Switzerland, already suffered from economic delay, can suffer even more because of situation deterioration in the real estate market. It is expected that at following session which is planned for September, 18th, the Swiss national bank will leave the key interest rate at level of 2,75 %. According to the forecast of the Swiss national bank, gross national product growth of Switzerland in 2008 will make 1,5 %-2 %. More darkly less, economists assert that this forecast will be reconsidered with fall at session of bank in the middle of September. However considering numerous revisions on the USA, EU, etc. to the countries it does not cause special anxiety. As soon as the prices in the commoditive markets are stabilised, and especially on oil it is possible to expect franc strengthening.