Analysis of world markets

USD. 2007 it is considered to be July-August beginning of hypothecary crisis in the USA. Despite the fact that what but has not come to the end in economy, on forex pair euro/dollar it is almost finished. The mark 1,38 became start to dollar falling on it and will come to the end. And most likely it happens already on September, 15-16th. At present traders selling dollar to euro on 1,49 literally do not wish to notice the negative statistics from the USA, telling about problems in EU. Despite the fact that last good for dollar in real motive power of strengthening is oil. Passage of conditionally thought up boundary to 100 dale. For barrel will lead to explosive strengthening of dollar. It is necessary to remember that in states elections and cheap oil approach is one components of this pre-election company. So even FRS session under the rate will suit on September, 16th traders. The truth remains some global "long-playing" problems - negative trading balance and growth of unemploymen rate. The balance of trading balance in July has made-62.0 billion dollars, at the decrease forecast to-58.0 billion, and previous value of-58.8 billion dollars. The quantity of demands for the unemployment benefit one week prior to September, 6th has made 445 thousand at the decrease forecast to 440 thousand and the previous value of 444 thousand Well also such trifle, as growth of gross national product within a statistical error. If that in general is in 3-4 quarters. But during elections it is natural a trifle - we know that it!! As a result for these days forecast such - oil downwards, dollar upwards. Levels 1, 37 - 1, 385 (crisis beginning). Only both that and other technical movement which has been not connected with fundamental factors (the statistics while has a rest). And further - lateral flet.

CAD. Positive consequences commoditive orient economy will form still for a long time the positive statistics across Canada. Though prices falling for commoditive materials generated last weeks already has found reflexion in trading balance, however as a whole  positive remains. The trading balance in July has made 4.9 billion Canadian dollars, at the decrease forecast to 5.6 billion, and the previous value of 5.82 billion Canadian dollars. The habitation market has given yesterday a positive signal. The price index on new habitation in July has grown on 0.1 %, at the growth forecast for 0.1 %, and growth in June on 0.1 %. Meanwhile this positive has not found reflexion in Canadian dollar quotations as the prices for commoditive materials remain astable, however the strengthening potential continues to collect. 

EUR. ECB members continue to force with ecstasy to fear on the market and to press an euro current rate downwards. The blessing statistical datas it allow to do without straining (not the USA). In the first it is the extremely favourable to economy (cheap euro - a positive for export), and will cease to reproach that do nothing. And, at least, for certain to fix current ECB levels even has withdrawn more than 20 billion euro this week. Thus surplus of dollar liquidity remains. Well and now actually comments. ECB member Nut Vellink: It is impossible to deny possibilities of technical recession this year in the Eurozone. Credit crisis can strike on real economy. It is necessary for banks to increase the capital or problems in the financial markets can start a negative spiral in real economy. In general all is bad. Worse than ever. Though …. The index of Germany wholesale prices in August has fallen to 1.8 %, at the analysts forecast decrease for 0.3 %, and growth in July on 1.4 %. The minister of Spain Pedro Solbes economic development has informed today that the rate of inflation will continue to decrease during second half of this year. Here the reason - «Strong euro in the high prices for oil were constrained by inflation development in Spain, and recent reduction of prices in the commoditive markets has raised level of business optimism in industrial sphere». So we wait positive statistical datas for September. For now - all is bad, very bad, in the general euro becomes cheaper.   

GBP. In England all is really bad. Fundamentally badly. Even the cheap pound will not rescue economy, and after all has not stopped to fall yet! If there will be rare "impregnations" of positive statistics it essentially will not be reflected in the market. Yesterday Marvin King, the England Bank chairman has expressed concern concerning dispersal of inflation owing to growth of wages level.“ Interest rates remained at level of 5 % because Bank of England intend to struggle with inflation growth, and to lower it to target level of 2 %. It is yet known as the market of a manpower by the end the year will lead, we are afraid that growth of expenses for a labour will raise and will cause development of the next coil of an inflationary spiral ”, - he has informed. Also he has added that inflation in Great Britain, possibly, yet has not reached the top that reduces probability of decrease in the rate this year. At session on Thursday, Bank of England has raised the forecast inflation growth this year to level of 4.4 %, against the forecast of the growth published in May for 4.3 %. The estimation consumers of the prices growth rate in Great Britain has grown to a record maximum in August. It has occurred, whether that reduction of prices on energy carriers was raised by the doubts concerning that can lower Bank of England the key interest rate level in the near future. According to the results of the interrogation spent GfK NOP on the instructions of England Bank published on Thursday, the British consumers expect a rise in prices for 4,4 % during the following 12 months. In May this value was equal 4,3 %. New value is more high from the beginning of conducting statistics 1999. 

AUD. Unemployment falls. Inflationary expectations too (in September have made 4.4 %, and in August - 4.9 %). The budget with the big proficiency. All like good, and here currency in a descending trend. Fault to all a comoditive binding of the Australian dollar. The commoditive materials become cheaper - and money too. Only for how long? Fundamentally - it is necessary to buy, the truth turn was not issued yet. It is necessary to look attentively at commoditive materials and to wait for a turn. A course stock downwards practically does not remain.