Analysis of world markets

USD. Lehman has confirmed the procedure bankruptcy beginning

Dollar falling can stop only tomorrow's FRS session under the rate. Dollar has fallen against euro in the beginning of the auctions on Friday, having decreased for the first time for 8 trading sessions. The publication of the disappointing data on retails has provoked decrease in dollar against euro and yen. Dollar on Friday actively reacted to any messages on destiny Lehman Brothers. On this wave of uncertainty some traders on Friday sold dollars and euro, buying yen before three-day days off in Japan. Statistical datas last week Business stocks have grown in July the maximum rates for 4 years while sales have shown small growth, drawing a sad picture of a situation in branch. Tovaro-material stocks have grown on 1,1 % in July - the maximum indicator since July, 2004, economists predicted growth only on 0,5 % of sale have grown on 0,5 %, much more slowly, than economists expected. Retail stocks have grown on 1,5 % as much as possible since May, 2006, retails have fallen 0,6 %. The Most part is necessary on not sold cars, stocks which have grown on 3,2 % in July, sales in automobile sector were reduced to 4,3 % - as much as possible since September, 2005.

CAD. Last week did not indulge Canadian dollar positive signals, however to wait for such situation continuation and further it is not necessary. The statistics of Canada still will please the market with a positive. Meanwhile pressure of the falling prices upon commoditive materials has led to that in July the trading profit has decreased more than it was expected, to 4,85 billion Canadian dollars (4,54 billion US dollars). Export has grown on 2,2 %, but power export has fallen to 1,5 %, for the first time since October, 2007. Use of capacities in the second quarter has fallen to 78. % from level of 79.8 % in the first quarter. Strong sales were observed only on the industrial goods and materials and the equipment. Dynamics of the commoditive markets continues to define quotations of the Canadian currency.

JPY. On Friday morning the yen was on a two-year maximum against euro, and was stable against the basic currencies. However before long days off in Japan (Monday DAY off) and in the market there were conversations on probable purchase Lehman Brothers or bank Bank of America, or Barclays, yen has lost a part of positions, signalling that traders again use this currency for purchase of more risky highly remunerative actives. As the currency actively used at brave currency transactions strengthening is the natural short-term tendency which hasn't been connected with statistics. Gross national product gain in the second quarter-0.7 %, previous value-0,6 %. In the second quarter the Japanese economy has fallen more strongly, than expected, underlining fears that the economic №2 is included into recession against decreasing export and slowed down corporate capital investments. Capital investments have fallen, predictably and as corporate incomes sharply fall, they remain weak for some time. Observable reduction on 0,7 % is a bit less, than market expectation (-0,8 %). Some economists expect economy decrease in July-September and prevailing recession signs. Though the economy trend negative, is small hope that strong growth in developing countries will support the Japanese export. Both external, and national demand will be slowed down, despite small margin that means Japanese economy will be reduced in July-September before restoration in October-December. 

EUR. The euro can continue to grow on Monday as traders reconsider the relation to recent growth of dollar. On Friday morning the euro/dollar pair has grown to 1,4203 / a maximum level for three sessions/. The euro grows and against Japanese yen. Closing of risky positions against fears concerning global economic delay promoted earlier dollar growth as it has represented itself as "smooth water". This process became less active on the days off threshold while index Dow Jones Industrial Average gradually grows. Traders are now compelled to reconsider weight value of threats for economics. Negative signals arrive from all without an exception of the developed countries. So manufacture in July in the Eurozone has decreased on 0,3 % m/m, on 1,7 % y/y - annual falling maximum since June, 2003. Economists expected falling of this indicator on 0,3 % m/m on 0,6% y/y Weak data on industrial production has strengthened expectations of decrease in ECB interest rate. Besides, the economy was reduced to 0,2 % in 2 quarter. Industrial production in June has fallen to 0,8 % m/m. It was originally informed on falling of 0,5 %. Curtailment of production in June in comparison with the same period of previous year has been caused by decrease in manufacture of consumer  long using goods. However Germany Finance Minister Peer Shtainbryuk has declared that while there is no necessity for acceptance of EU economy measures package on stimulation. He considers that "it be no point to trifle money", having added that each country itself is responsible for itself. Its French colleague has noticed that inflation peak in France already behind. Inflation in France in August has decreased to 3,2 % from 3,6 % in July. The head of Eurogroup Jean-Claude Junker has declared:" I do not think that we enter into the period of long recession », but risks of decrease in economy rates have increased. Under EU forecasts, gross national product in 3 quarter remains zero, and will a little grow in 4 quarter. Proceeding growth of employment can support consumer expenses and will strengthen ECB unwillingness to reduce the interest rate. But employment growth will be slowed down in 3 quarter and can soon come to naught. In the second quarter the number of workplaces has grown slightly in Germany and France, but has not changed in Spain. The number working in EU has made 226,4 million persons, and has grown on 0,2 % in 1 quarter, in the second quarter 2007 growth has made 1,3 %. 

GBP. British leading British association on Monday became last group which has warned that the country rolls down in recession. In the last economic forecast the Confederation of the British industrialists (CBI) predicts «slipping in recession». Economy has decreased on 0,2 % in 3 quarter and will decrease for 0,1 % in 4 quarter. Recession is defined as negative growth two quarter on end. The forecast has coincided with forecasts of EU and the Organization of the economic development countries and cooperation (OEDP). Budgetary deficiency will exceed the European norms. Great Britain Minister of Finance Alister Darling has declared that each country should bear responsibility for the decrease in economic development rates. Each country should choose degree of the financial well-being itself. Earlier the Commission of the European Union has scarified British authorities for intention to exceed norm of budgetary deficiency in 3 % from gross national product. According to Darling, Great Britain can independently cope with economic difficulties. Influence of England economy on the currency continues to remain negative and the criticism from outside EU does not add a positive. 

AUD. Australian Central Bank has given to bank system more money, than it was required to it by estimations as fears concerning a USA financial system have forced interbank rates to grow worldwide. The reserve Bank of Australia has added in total 2.1 billion dollars. It is ready above estimated requirement of the market for 828 million dollars, and means that the cash rests of commercial banks will increase. Traders say that these superfluous means will help to lower pressure upon system where rates have raised and have increased credit spread after on days off negotiations about support of American investment bank Lehman Brothers Holdings have ended with anything. As banks reserve money, a difference between three mounth bank interest rates and three mounth rates an index of swaps-rates (OIS) has increased to a maximum level for 6 weeks from 44 % on Friday to 54 %. This difference shows readiness of banks give each other loans, its expansion speaks about more severe constraints of crediting.